The Surplus on Shina's Trade

China's trade surplus expanded by 85.5 percent last month to hit an all-time monthly record of US$26.91 billion, official data showed yesterday, as exporters rushed to beat new curbs.

Exports last month totaled US$103.27 billion and imports were US$76.36 billion, the customs administration said in a statement on its Web site.

China posted a trade surplus of US$112.53 billion in the first six months of this year, as exports hit US$546.73 billion and imports reached US$434.2 billion, it said, without giving comparative data.

But based on previously released figures, last month's surplus was 85.5 percent higher than the same month last year and the six-month figure was 83.1 percent larger than the corresponding period last year.

Last month's surplus far exceeded the previous monthly record high of US$23.83 billion set in October last year.

A senior analyst at the customs administration had said last week that one of the reasons for the then anticipated rise last month was that manufacturers had rushed to ship orders before the end on July 1 of export tax rebates.

export rush

Ping An Securities analyst Sun Fanghong agreed that the push to get goods out of the door before the rebate deadline had played a significant role in further widening China's contentious trade gap.

"Exporters are rushing to export," Sun said.

The government announced on June 19 that it would cut or remove export tax rebates for 2,831 commodities, or a third of total exports, from the beginning of this month in another effort to bring some balance to the trade account.

The move came after China imposed extra export tariffs and slashed import duties as of June 1, which led to a similar export boom and lifted May's trade surplus by 73 percent to US$22.45 billion, then the third-highest ever.

But Robert Subbaraman, a Lehman Brothers analyst in Hong Kong, said the widening surplus was also due to falling imports.

"The composition surprised us -- export growth was not as strong as we had expected. Part of the reason for that record trade surplus is because import growth was weaker than it has been in recent months.

"In the past, it has been very strong in exports. The difference this time is imports which have weakened in terms of the growth rate," he said.

pressure

China's huge trade surplus, which soared 74.2 percent to US$177.5 billion last year, has been a constant source of friction with its major trading partners.

Sun said the larger surplus would again pressure the currency but was unlikely to affect Beijing's stated policy of maintaining the stable rise of the Chinese yuan.

"The surplus absolutely will impact the yuan's appreciation but I don't think the Chinese government will change its slow and steady pace [of adjustment] easily," she said.
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source:taipeitimes.com